April 11, 2017 Ag Forecast Update

Eric Snodgrass
Senior Atmospheric Scientist

April precipitation has gone a long way to erase drought in the central US at the cost of field work early in the 2017 growing season. An active jet stream that has resisted large scale blocking has promoted the development of numerous storm systems to develop in the central US. One major consequence has been seemingly ubiquitous severe weather – the US has already accumulated over 5,000 reports of severe weather this season, which is well ahead of average. Another consequence of this flow pattern is anomalously warm weather this April across the eastern half of the US. With warm soil temperatures and a lack of very cold air in the forecast, many want to get into the fields as soon as possible. Using the latest long-range forecast guidance on April 11, the next ten days looks to have multiple days of precipitation, which will continue to delay fieldwork.

Figure 1. Next ten days of accumulated precipitation (GFS 00Z April 11, 2017).

Figure 1. Next ten days of accumulated precipitation (GFS 00Z April 11, 2017).